Perasan tak, lately ni (2010) macam kurang sikit orang kecoh-kecoh pasal pelaburan emas. Ade la jugak ejen-ejen emas ni promote jual emas, but the hype seems to slowly diminish. Adakah sebab harga emas tahun 2010 ni dah tak naik sebanyak tahun 2009? Or maybe dh jatuh altogether?
Pernah saya tulis pasal emas maybe flat for 2010 partly sebab harga minyak tak naik sebanyak mana. So far, so true. Harga emas from Jan to Mar 2010 naik-turun sekitar USD1050-1150 and minyak pun about USD75-85 for the same period.
The only difference is keputusan Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) yg naikkan Kadar faedah Negara by 0.25%; which surprise most economists & forex traders. Akibatnya, our currency naik from RM3.4/USD in Jan 10 to about RM3.2/USD sekarang; sampai ade org cakap it is the best performance in the world, if not in Asia already!
The side effect would be imported stuff getting cheaper, especially yg traded pakai currency USD; including most commodity like OIL & GOLD. So, harga emas tak pasal-pasal jatuh 6% walaupun harga emas static. Dan sbb spread between harga beli and jual roughly about 6%, harga emas kena naik 12% just to breakeven (balik modal)!
I think harga emas can reach USD1250/oz for 2010 kalau harga minyak can break USD95/bbl “psychological barrier” for the same period. Kalau betul pun tu baru 9.6% higher drpd harga emas sekarang; still short by 3% (drpd 12% td) just to breakeven. Ni pun kalau RM/USD constant.
Cabarannya, so many rumors saying that RM akan lebih kukuh dlm masa terdekat ni; at least in 2010. Yg betul-betul optimistic is targeting RM3.0/USD by year end, yg moderate sikit target RM3.1/USD. Ini didorong oleh kemungkinan BNM naikkan lagi interest rate in Q3, 2010 serta kemungkinan China de-peg & revalue RMB.
Kalau betul Ringgit can reach RM3.1/USD, harga emas kena naik AT LEAST 15%. Kalau nak untung 10% (which is more than ASB), harga emas kena naik 25%; wic I think quite doubtful. This is my view untuk pelaburan emas jangka pendek tahun 2010.
For long-term (3-5 years from now), gold is still good though. From Q3 2010 to Q1 2011, harga emas maybe akan face ‘correction’ yg agak significant kalau US ‘berjaya’ naikkan Kadar faedah mereka. After that, harga emas akan terus naik seiring dgn harga komoditi yg lain as economy recovers.
So if you are serious about gold investment (bukan jual emas and get komisen), monitor semua komodity instead of just GOLD. Lama2 you’ll be smart enough to differentiate harga emas yg naik just sebab spekulasi or betul-betul sbb demand yg meningkat.
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